I don't know if any of you have tried www.youos.com but its pretty awesome. Its a prototype operating system in your browser. Works in Firefox, IE, XP, Mac Ubuntu.... oh the power of Ajax. Youos is an operating system, complete with installable applications, folder structure, messaging, document management.... in theory everything XP, MAC or Ubuntu can do.
And then there are alternatives like the mythically amazing looking Foldera and Eyeos.net
And then there are the stand alone webapps like Writeley, Gmail, Google spreadsheets.... you can even get webabbs that are starting to mimic Photoshop, Viseo and Powepoint...
These are the harbingers of the death or the portable application, IMHO:(
Don't get me wrong, I have been a HUGE advocate of portable apps. My company has invested a lot in developing them and until very recently I thought they would dominate - but I think, frankly, this project in the long term, is doomed.
Why carry a Thumbdrive when you can carry a password instead?
I guess the issues that might save the portable application are as follows:
Trust
People don't trust other people having their hands on their data. When it is safe and locked away in their pocket there is this aspect of ownership that we are conditioned, at the start of this new millennium, to appreciate. I think this will fade. Its in the interest of all webapp providers to be supremely trustworthy.
The slightest sniff of mistrust and a competitor will tumble in.
Access and Connectivity
The beauty of a portable application is that you can always have it. And this, against a repertoire of comparable web apps, is the portable applications saving grace. But as connectivity approaches ubiquity this conditions relevant diminishes.
Are portable applications destined to fill in the net gaps in subways and that two week holiday in Timbuktu?
The Chic of Geek
How many of you have walked into a your friend's house or a webcafe and slipped you 1 gig of USB into their PC and smugly said “Yea, its all on my keyring”.... as your bookmarks and messenger and Abiword pop up.
That's cool but its history. In much less than 5 years you will just open their Firefox, logon to Youos or Google OS or XP Online and have it all there. That's cool.
The Future of Portable Applications
I feel a bit of a turncoat writing this to this forum. Only in January I was blogging about how portable apps are the future:
http://www.salted.net/2006/01/portableappscom.html
I just cant see any real viable space for them when we have webapps. As webapps get better compared to installable software and thus portable applications the utility space for the latter become really marginalised? Doesn't it?
Subway tunnels and Timbuktu?
Id be interested in any thoughts on this matter and hope my apparent gloom about portable applictaions is seen as an excited interest in the future of personal technology,
Mat Ripley
Blog salted.net
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I checked out YouOS, and it's pretty cool, but let me just say this... it will not be the death of portable applications.
Take, as an example, Writely. That's been around for a while. Everyone thought that was going to be the end of the word processor as we know it, but Microsoft Word and alternatives are still around, and still just as widely used. I don't know why everyone keeps thinking thin clients (web apps) are just going to just completely replace rich clients. People have been saying it for years, and it hasn't happened yet.
One strike against thin clients is that, frankly, the Web just wasn't set up for them. However, that's a pretty pathetic argument. I give you, then, the two remaining strikes against them: familiarity and functionality. Most people don't use web apps as their primary method of doing things because any given thin client doesn't offer anywhere near the same level of functionality as an equivalent rich client would (YouOS is no exception). With this in mind, it should be clear that most people would prefer, if they can avoid it, not using the thin client anywhere else, since it's not going to be as familiar to them (and again, they'll lose functionality that they may rely on in the rich client). Given the choice, then, don't you think such a user would choose the portable rich client over a web-based thin client? I think the answer to that is obvious.
Trust me: portable applications aren't going away any time soon.
-
fatcerberus@yahoo.com [aim: fatcerberus]
I have no witty remarks or quotes to share at the moment.
I hope your right but I don't think you are.
Webapps have so much space for improvement, their road map is this: Become more like installed/portable applications.
That's just coding, not easy ajax, but what needs to be done is out in the open. But the where does Abiword go next? or Excel? They are mature Applications, of course they are better right now but how far ahead than the webapp equivalents will they be in a year? The money and smart that Google and Yahoo and others are pumping into webapps is surely relevant. You just cant dismiss it.
Also its not just about desktop mimicry. Portable Firefox is fantastic, no question. But then last month Google comes along with its new Firefox Synchronizer and portable firefox becomes much less required. In one tiny free app its utility is diminished. And this is going to happen again and again.
Everything is pointing to the web and webapps. The tech, the money, the OS independence, the brains.
I use FFP for an entirely different reason. Most of the places I go to dont have Firefox installed. Also, theres a sense of anonymity when using portable apps ("Hah! I'm here but you wont know when I remove my drive") I for one used to use Writely as well, all I have to say is it isnt what they hype said it would be (*cough*Formatting issues*cough*).
So as far as I'm concerned, portable apps are here to stay.
----
Linux: Because rebooting is for adding hardware
In the future, we will likely be replacing much of what we do with web-based alternatives. But that future is still a bit of a ways off. Currently, the most interesting 'live' app isn't really that live at all. The ajax word processors are really just implementations that utilize the WYSIWYG editors built into browsers... that's why they don't work in Konqueror, Safari or pre-9 Opera (since they don't have editors). The spreadsheets are slowly getting there. But are pretty lacking for many features.
Security is a HUGE issue with web-based apps. To even be able to edit your document or spreadsheet, you have to send it over the wire to someone you don't know (usually over an unencrypted connection). If you're a business, this is simply not acceptable. If you value your privacy, I wouldn't recommend this for most users either.
Bandwidth and connectivity are issues, too. A bit under 50% of US folks still use 56k dialup or slower. That ajax word processers' Javascript take up about 1mb or so. So, expect up to 1 minute launch times. And, if you're working with a large document file... say a couple mbs... expect it to take a while to upload. Most "broadband" connections have only 256Kbps or so of upload bandwidth. That's 32KB per second upload. Or, about a minute to upload a 2mb file. Whereas, with a file on your USB thumbdrive, you're looking at 'upload' speeds (aka read speeds) of 15+MB per second. Now, of course, you could keep all your files on a server somewhere all the time... but again there's that pesky security thing to consider.
Compatibility is an issue as well. Since you're dealing with a browser-based app, it simply can't implement all the features of a real word processor or spreadsheet yet... and it may be some time before it can (unless, of course, a service limits itself to using something like XUL -- which is damn powerful -- and is only compatible with Firefox/Mozilla Suite). So, you're converting your word document to HTML and back to edit it in an online word processor. Functionality-wise... the online word processors are closer to Wordpad than they are to a Word, OpenOffice.org Write or AbiWord... so you're missing features and will have compatibility issues. Now, if you just need a simple document with some bold, italic, lists and headers, you're fine, though.
Eventually, we'll be addressing most of these issues. Broadband will get faster (fiber to the home, etc), security will be addressed (possibly with encrypted remote file storage) and compatibility will improve (maybe XUL will be the standard). But, for now... and for a while in the future... portable apps are a great option to be able to do what you want, where you want.
Regards,
John
Sometimes, the impossible can become possible, if you're awesome!
Security is the big thing--and that's the all-important fourth strike against web-based applications. I trust Google for the most part, but that doesn't mean I trust the black-hat hackers (or the damned government) that might decide to break into Google's servers to steal my files. It's not worth the risk. And it's only going to get worse.
Frankly, I never see Web apps becoming prevalent for just that reason. At least not in my lifetime (and I'm 22 years old, so that's saying something). Very few people would trust their content on a server they don't control. The only ones really pushing the thin clients are the geeks who think it's super-awesome. Simply put, they're a novelty.
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fatcerberus@yahoo.com [aim: fatcerberus]
I have no witty remarks or quotes to share at the moment.
'...Fiber to the home...'
We already have fiber optics in all the new estates up here on the Gold Coast.
----
R McCue
PortaBlog Home and My Website
PortaBlog is now officially out of beta!
"If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate."
With envy. Verizon seemed to be milking it for all it was worth, last time I checked.... Perhaps...another look is in order...
Ashes
------
I only have ADSL cause I don't live in Varsity Lakes.
----
R McCue
PortaBlog Home and My Website
PortaBlog is now officially out of beta!
"If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate."
I just tried YouOs and I must admit it is very impressive. Some colleague also tried it and they get the same impression. We even started a battle against the Evil Fellow Java Developer on the chat app, and find allies from around the world... very funny :-).
My teacher used to say that 20 years ago they say COBOL was dead, but it's still around.
After the initial shock a question arises: "Why?". The answer of the moment is "why not?", and I believe if one just sit and think about it for a while should find better answer.
However, like other people who answered this post, I don't believe YouOs and others will be the portable app killer. Hey I used PortableFirefox to access the YouOs demo!
At the same time I don't believe that the obstacles for the web apps will be so hard: we already use https connections for web banking, e commerce transaction, and so on. Maybe the availability of a hi-speed/low cost connection it is the hardest requirement.
If I tought that when I was 22 years old Internet, mobile phones, satellite TV, Voip application were a long way to come to the masses I feel like a prehistoric relic...
Have a nice day
sblandin
PS. anyway keep up the good work here at PortaleApps. I discovered many useful and amusing things thanks to this site... My USB key found a reason to live
I think that to say webapps wont become dominant is pretty niave. There will be security issues and connectivity issues, but these will diminish both technically and in terms of user appreciation.
I’m with JH:
… for now... and for a while in the future... portable apps are a great option to be able to do what you want, where you want...
With web apps becoming even somewhat dominant soon enough to really worry about. Security, functionality, and preferance aside, they are dependant on a web connection. Using them say, on a dial-up connection is possible, but is likely to be very painful. And, what do you do if there is no connection at all? An interesting novelty to be sure, but at the moment, not a real contender for the desktop.
Ashes
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Thank you, Ashes. It's good to see that someone, at least, sees where I'm coming from here.
The fifth strike (gee, these Web apps are getting absolutely hammered with arguments here): Web-based applications cater to a different croud. You're going from software as an application to software as a service, which means that sites like YouOS aren't going to stay free for very long, and if they do, they'll end up loaded with banners and popup ads. Most people (like me) aren't used to paying monthly for their software.
People like to pay once (or not at all in the case of freeware and open-source) initially, and then use the software for free after that. A Web app can't offer that--at least, not for very long--and still expect to turn a profit. SaaS (yes, that's a real term) almost completely precludes free software.
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fatcerberus@yahoo.com [aim: fatcerberus]
I have no witty remarks or quotes to share at the moment.
I think your wrong on all counts Bruce:)
The idea you state that "that sites like YouOS aren't going to stay free for very long, and if they do, they'll end up loaded with banners and popup ads" is just plain inaccurate. It harks back from the dot.com days and that isnt part of a realistic future model. Especially against the emerging and beautiful open source contenders (really viable contenders).
Just as the installable open source software has produced some awesome free software why shouldnt that same mentality apply to web apps? The only difference beiong that for webapps all you need to do is visit a website.
The issue here isnt about cost but functionality and security. And both of those are become more viable in terms of web based applications day by day.
Such exciting times!
Mat
The difference between open source software and having an open source/free service, is that you need servers and bandwidth to run on. The money to do that needs to come from somewhere. And that somewhere is usually advertising or fees. Something like YouOS needs money coming in from somewhere to pay for electricity, offices, servers, bandwidth, tech staff, etc. Even if the whole shebang is open source and developed by people all over the world... they still need money to run the actual site. Something like SourceForge is HUGE for open source software and project hosting. (If the apps were downloadable from me... my hosting bill would be $30,000... per *month*) But running a service requires real money. And that's gotta come from somewhere. Since it will be applications... text-based ads might be difficult, since they wouldn't be contextual. Perhaps fees and/or ad banners or something.
Sometimes, the impossible can become possible, if you're awesome!
That’s not really the case John.
Sure, free web apps cost money to run but:
1)The bandwidth and storage costs are always coming down. Exponential decreases.
2) if a service really takes off then there will be adverting money to be made without “loads of pop ups” as someone said in this thread. Advertising, after all, isn’t bad if done well.
3) There is always the premium service charge potential. Because the Google buy out writely were thinking about charging for PDF export, for example. Picture and video services already charge extra for extra storage and bandwidth.
4) The Value of The User. The model that Google are going with is that their biggest asset is their user and that user’s information. This is why all of Google’s web apps are and probably will remain free.
In other words, running costs of a successful web service should be negated by the collateral profits of the web service. (The exception being media heavy services like youtube… I don’t think anyone knows how that will turn a profit… but I bet it will.)
Mat My blog www.salted.net
That they'd need to do advertising and/or charge fees. It couldn't just be free and ad-free. I never claimed it would be popups. But it may need to be banner ads since there's no text to analyze for contextual ads, unless they're analyzing your private documents... which isn't really a good idea.
Sometimes, the impossible can become possible, if you're awesome!
He was referring to my post, where I suggested it would be either pop-ups or banner ads, or even both. Even if it's just banner ads, those can be bad, especially if they're of the distracting "punch the monkey, win a million dollars!" variety. Or even worse, the ones with a shaky, seizure-inducing window saying "click to claim your prize!" (which are impossible to ignore). I lose all respect for a site once I start seeing those kinds of ads, and I'm sure most people feel the same. This is why I don't see Web apps becoming completely ubiquitous--most people would prefer an ad-free rich client (even if it costs a few bucks) over a free, loaded-with-ads Web app. I know I would.
-
fatcerberus@yahoo.com [aim: fatcerberus]
I have no witty remarks or quotes to share at the moment.
And another example: lots of people say DOS is dead, but that's still around, too.
-
fatcerberus@yahoo.com [aim: fatcerberus]
I have no witty remarks or quotes to share at the moment.
Doom.
Vintage!
I took a look at YouOS too and it is pretty awesome. The fact that it is web based is a problem for me.
Several days ago I wrote about being unable to use any of my flash drives in a large new public library because security would not allow anything with auto-run or exe. attached. To me, increased security is more likely to be the death of flash drives.
Web based programs are a great idea, but what I'm seeing instead is how fast technology is changing. Isn't it wonderful that there is
always going to be a new toy to play with? Guess we can't get too attached to any of them.
Donna
I agree with you Dford but it cant be denied that webapps are a new paradigm in terms on software when compared with installable and portable apps.
My money says webapps will be here in 10 years, installable and portable applications will be history apart from in specialist cases.
Last night I had to reinstall Windows at home, and I am so grateful for having my important stuff portable. It was no issue at all and nothing really was lost. Dont get me wrong, I adore the portable app, Im just saying that when all I need is to enter a few passwords into a few websites and I have it all there, ill have no need for the portable apps.
Mat
Blog www.salted.net
Is only as strong as it's weakest link. While I do agree that there is a lot of room for improvement in this area, I just don't think this will be a viable option in the near future for particularly sercurity-minded people. It would really depend, I would think, on future emergent tech. As it stands right now, one protection is only more secure than another. In other words, no garauntees. We don't really have a 'final solution'. This idea looks like another graft onto a tree, only time will tell if it can really become a branch.
Ashes
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The YouOs looks really interesting and powerful. However, like others mentioned here, I don't believe that's the end of portable programs. My reasons:
connectivity - webbased program assume you have a working, rapid and unhampered internet connection 24/24. Still, this is not the reality for the majority of mankind. I am probably one of the few users on this board living in the 3rd world and suffering from slow and unreliable analog connections. No way to think I'd store my files elswhere than where I can access them anytime I want. Not to mention the hard time I'd have to work on, say, a document of a modest 1MB ... Upload a series of 5 megapixel photos to the web to work on them from there? Forget it ...
ownership - even in the "civilised" world with broadband around every second corner there are situations where you simply won't be able to connect to the internet. Take corporate LANs that are not connected, for example (btw, I use Ynotes to transfer webpages found on the internet to our corporate, unconnected system, and love it for that). Or travelling with your laptop and no hotspot around. I want to have my files with me at all time, and the means of *my* choice to work on them.
security - well, yeah, one may hope that this improves in the future, but again from the perspective of the traveller, who has to work from public internet-cafes from time to time: these stations are infested with anything nasty you can imagine, including probably keyloggers ot programs that take screenshots etc. I wouldn't take the risk to jeopardise all of my "essentials" by having my one-and-only password intercepted, rather I use several PWs on different applications to reduce the risks.
All this means to me that portable programs will be around for much longer. However, as I said - I was impressed by the capacities of YouOs. My question is: could the two not be combined? I.e. run someting like YouOs in a portable version with for example a portable webserver - now this would be the best of two worlds! Has anybody heard of such a possibility?
Cheers
Chris
Always on the move - love all portable apps!
If I have a machine capable of running a web server, why should I use it to run a web application that mimic a computer? I suppose that XAMPP should be able to run something like YouOS but it requires a PC with many resources, while a corresponding local app should have lesser requirements.
However an application developed for an environment of this kind should be easily ported... You don't even need to port it as long as your web platform support all the features your application needs to work.
Mhhh... now I am confused
sblandin
It certainly wouldn't be the death of portable apps but I've found that using logmein.com as a remote desktop access from uni is fantastic!
I don't have to worry about the security of e-mails I'm carrying around with me as they're all at home.
I think it's actually quicker to log into aswell than it is to load up portable thunderbird.
I love portable apps, just think I'll be using this for my e-mail from now on.
Andrew.
My company does not allow access to webmail or webappps, for security purposes. So that blows web apps at work. And what happens when you get the all too common, "Cannot connect to server", message, LOL!
No believe me, you are just seeing the beginning of portable apps, heck most people are amazed when they see what I have available to me on my thumbdrive. They rush out to buy one, and want me to set it up for them and teach them.
Web apps are maybe another 20-30 years down the road.
This is the biggest problem with so-called thin clients--too many companies severely limit what you can do on the Internet. It's not as common on a company machine to have your USB drive blocked, so in most cases portable applications are more desirable.
-
Lauren She eats everything! It's like having a goat. A giant, two-Godzillaton goat.
maggie Hey, I resent that remark! I only weigh ONE Godzillaton!
~ Spectacles: Bruce's Story
I'm with whoever a few posts ago said that the thing that would kill off portable apps would be increased security.
Certainly for home usage, not a problem, but corporate and places like libraries are starting to catch onto the fact that since W2K came out removable drives in the form of USB connected devices are a security risk, unlike floppies they are big enough to carry applications and cause a problem. You now have corporate management software to lock down USB ports and group policies enforcing this.
Paronoid of them maybe, but it's a reality in many workplaces and I don't think it will go away or get smaller as time passes.
Where I work not only are webmail pages blocked, so are the standard mail and Usenet newsgroup ports. So PortableThunderbird won't work for me there.
"Web apps are maybe another 20-30 years down the road."
Warloc,thats preposterous surely? In 20 years we will all be using holographic sentient cyber-interfaced quantum thumbdrives, on USB 3.
It will be webapps allround in 5 years or less.
Mat - My Blog www.salted.net
Technology growth rates, and the particularly sorry state of our world today, I tend to believe that you may be overly optimistic...or fatalistic, depending on which side of the glass you're on.
i think we just have to wait and see.
Ashes
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Interesting article on the APC Magazine site:
Why the future is not AJAX
Despite the negative title (
), it does raise some interesting ideas.
Have fun!
Ashes
------
I think that this web based application is just the new born of the portable application; for instance most of the time I'm away from any kind of connection (except satellite) now which company will be willingly paying for a satellite connection in order to have application for doing the job?? NONE.
That is for me another web history running around till it stop by themself striken death by something more real and, in the future, more feasible and user friendly, than a web insecure application (a common application is 100% insecure, this is my first rule).
So for me there is nothing to worry, just awaiting the selfdestruction....
I didn't understand a word you just said.
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Lauren She eats everything! It's like having a goat. A giant, two-Godzillaton goat.
maggie Hey, I resent that remark! I only weigh ONE Godzillaton!
~ Spectacles: Bruce's Story
Actually, I've stayed out of this, but now I can't resist.
My assessment of web applications is that they are being pushed by a bunch of "old" mainframe folks who won't admit that mainframes are dead. (Another topic?) I've heard this topic since the early PC days in various forms, but it seems that eveyone wants it on their desktop not controlled by someone else. I could be wrong, but I think there is a lot of life left in Portable APPs.
Love what you guys are doing. Tired of programming or I would help.
Clair
http://www.serverwatch.com/news/article.php/2248411
http://www.itnews.com.au/newsstory.aspx?CIaNID=14884
Running your OS on a VM on a mainframe and accessing it with a dumb/smart terminal connected to the lan. Add a usb connection to the dumb/smart terminal and portable apps live on...
They stole my idea ! gna-gna-gna !!! grrr.....
I'll make my site this night !
I've waited too long. Grrrr....
I've had that idea as well
Off-topic: John, why can't I post a new topic?
It posts it, says it has been created, it actually makes the new node, but the page is the Page Not Found page.
What is happening?
----
R McCue
PortaBlog Home and My Website
People who didn't need people needed people around to know that they were
the kind of people who didn't need people.
(Maskerade)
"If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate."
just checked it out seems ok,but at my age(i'm 50) i think i'll leave it to you younger guys
just took another look, not a bad looking site as long as they keep it ad free
if you don't know-ee you should ASCII
You take far too much for granted. When I visit my parents who live 20 miles from the nearest large town, they have no option but dial-up internet for the price range they need... Ever tried running YouOS on dial-up? Ever tried copying your 2MB spreadsheet from your always-on cable-internet-fed home computer to a remote computer on dial-up over a county Co-op telephone line? Even DSL can be pretty slow when it comes to some programs. There are a ton of people out there without viably fast internet, which is the key to making these things work.
---
Ph34r t3h cut3 0n3s
Ph34r t3h cut3 0n3s
Well, the basic idea of YouOS is not bad. But it`s account based. All my trust in in their servers.
I always trust in a community then in commercials. Even more I trust myself. Can I download the source? Can I install it on my own server? Are all connections secure, authenticated and encrypted? If yes, It could be an alternative but as long it`s just some firm offering something I can just smile about that, it`s not really the dead of portable apps.
There are tons of online OSes out there. And they have been around for a while. If Online OS's was the "death of portable apps" it would of happened a long time ago.
But once the future comes and most poeple have a UMPC then that will probably be the death of portable apps. 
Bensawsome
AKA BJ
"It's not winning that matters, it's winning in style that matters..."
"Always keep your words soft and sweet, just in case you have to eat them."
iLike Macs, iPwn, However you put it... Apple is better ^_^
"Claiming that your operating system is the best in the world because more people use it is like saying McDonalds makes the best food in the world..."
...how long it took the floppy to die.
...how long it took DOS to die.
There are plenty of other examples. As long as someone findes the tech useful then it will stick around. People are still using Commodore 64s to run BBSs for crying out loud.
...neither DOS nor the floppy are dead (yet).
Rather, they are on the "Endangered Species" list...
Give 'em another 5-10 yrs tops, and they'll be extinct (maybe).
Till then, they're still around, alive & kickin'...
"I don't hate cats...as long as they stay on the freeway, where they belong."
- Brad Stine
even I still use them, thy holy floppy (I'm being silly) is so awesome due to it's read-only feature.
And as for you Ben the idea of everyone having UMPCs would be great , espically if they have Linux on all of them, but still maybe UMPC's are not the of pas, maybe what if you can't bring yours to work?!? and make a use a work one
--
As all of ya should know Microsoft is the Evil Empire, and Windows (a.k.a. Winblows or Windoze) is their greatest general, so please make a difference and install Linux or Free BSD on yer Windows comp.